Truth be told, there are far too many reasons I could list that would answer that question for me to fit into one single article. I have already brought up, in the past, how the polls were showing Clinton would win by a landslide in 2016, and even shown the specific poll numbers and electoral vote predictions from a number of people, so there is no need for me to bring that up again.
There exists another reason that is far more contemporary than the 2016 polls: 2019 and 2020 polls.
You see, Matt Mayer has an interesting piece on Spectator about how “Predictions of Trump’s demise may yet again be premature.”
Mayer begins by showing the following numbers coming out of battleground states: in Arizona, Biden is up by two points. In North Carolina, he is up by eight; 11 in Pennsylvania, 10 in Michigan, 9 in Florida and eight in Ohio.
Under normal circumstances, and in a world where the news media is honest and objective, such numbers would spell trouble for Trump. However, we know perfectly well that the latter is not true, as we are literally talking about fake news polls. But that is not the only reason those numbers are suspect, and in fact, are not exactly bad news for Trump at all.
You see, those numbers that spell doom for the Trump re-election campaign were from last summer, before the Chinese coronavirus (and subsequently, the administration’s response to it, which some would argue was botched or at least not as good as it could have been (not that I am such a person)) and the “racial” riots we are seeing across the country and subsequently, Trump’s response to that as well. Last summer, just about everyone, Left or Right, was just about convinced that Trump would steamroll through the election and easily get re-elected.
Now, the Left is convinced (to an extent) that Biden will beat Trump as a result of the last roughly half year. So, then, those numbers that already had Biden winning in those battleground states have to have gotten bigger for Biden, right?
No, actually. Aside from Arizona, where Biden is now “ahead” by six points (a four-point increase), Trump has “closed the gap” in the other battleground states, in some by roughly half or even more.
In North Carolina, where Biden was supposedly leading by eight last year, he now only leads by one. In Pennsylvania, where Biden used to lead by eleven points, he now only leads by five. In Michigan, his lead is now only 6 (four-point decrease); in Florida, his lead is seven (two-point decrease); Wisconsin, Biden’s lead is 6 (three-point decrease) and in Ohio, Biden supposedly leads by six (two-point decrease).
If Trump truly butchered the response to the Chinese coronavirus and has performed abysmally in terms of dealing with racial inequality in America, and subsequently, dealing with the rioting and the destruction and burning down of places of business, homes, etc., - if Trump is truly as big of a screw-up just in the last half year as the Left says he is, how is it that polls show him gaining ground as opposed to losing it?
Like I said, last year, just about everyone was fully expecting Trump to easily win reelection. Despite what the polls said, I don’t think even the fake news media carrying those polls were convinced that Trump would be defeated by any of the 666 Democrat presidential candidates. Despite Biden’s lead early on, he would tend to flounder and he inspired just about no confidence at all, or even any energy. NO ONE is excited to vote for Biden, even now. Bernie was the clear opposition candidate for the DNC establishment and they did whatever they could to ensure Bernie would not be their nominee. Bernie got cheated twice.
The rest were a random assortment of lunacy, idiocy and radical communism but little personal appeal or notoriety to get very far in the polls. Warren was a cultural appropriator (not that any on the Left would dare call her that), Harris was a cop and an AG who routinely and unjustly would send black people to jail. Bloomberg’s stint lasted all of a half a movie’s run time and was essentially shot out of the sky after his first debate was over; Buttigieg was just the “look at me, I’m gay but somehow also the only person on here who would dare invoke the name of God” candidate; Gabbard was the only one I could even slightly tolerate because of her seemingly actual desire to bring our troops back and her hilarious attacks on Hillary, and the rest were totally forgettable.
Seriously, look up the Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and I can guarantee you straight up have not heard of at least a few of them, or forgotten that some of them ran.
My point is, despite the large number of candidates the Democrats boasted, time and time again, they all demonstrated a variety of reasons as to why they would lose to Trump by either a little or a lot. And now, the Democrats are stuck with a rapist with Dementia who refuses to leave the basement or answer any questions to the media because any unscripted engagement is 100% likely to result in him saying something else that demonstrates just how mentally unfit he is to run for president, let alone actually be president.
And this is the guy they say Trump is guaranteed to lose to? Again, even in their own polls, Trump has only GAINED support in key battleground states, even amidst a period of time in which one could argue Trump wasn’t at his best.
And we are still months away from the election. I have said this many times, but a lot can happen in between now and November of 2020. I have said this before the changing of the calendar took place, back when everyone was super confident Trump would easily be reelected, and I say this now, after the last few months of relative struggle. The events that will determine the results of the election have yet to occur. While one would think that the last few months have destroyed Trump’s chances, such a belief is rather short-sighted.
Even my own predictions on certain things have not panned out. I expected the Tara Reade story to be one that would haunt the Biden campaign. And while other things have obviously overshadowed that story because they were more important (namely, the pandemic), the fact that Biden is a rapist and hasn’t suffered the consequences in terms of support from women shows I was wrong with my predictions. Even the “you ain’t black” comment didn’t do much to hurt him with black people and he will still likely pull a majority of black voters to him.
So for anyone to believe the polls today, let alone a year ago, to be any indication of the results of the election is simply an exercise in madness. And even still, while I did say I wouldn’t bring this up again, I feel the need to mention that polls in 2016, specifically the day of the election, showed Clinton winning big and that obviously did not happen.
Not to mention the Cato Institute survey which showed people to be more reluctant to express their beliefs to other people because of fear of persecution, which could be one reason the polls say what they say: it’s entirely possible Trump supporters are either saying they “don’t know” who they will support or will say they will vote for Biden when they don’t actually plan to do so, and are just saying that to not be judged or punished by the pollsters.
The polls are wrong. Simple as that.
“Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing but inwardly are ravenous wolves.”
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