What The California Primary Results Tell Us About November: Blue Wave Is Not Likely

Credit goes to the artist.

On Tuesday, California (and other states, but we’ll just focus on CA) held their primaries to determine what two candidates will be facing each other in the midterm elections this November. The results don’t look too good for Democrats.
 
John Fund wrote an article for Fox News explaining the results of these primaries.
 
He tells us that “Democrats see their path to control of the House running through two dozen districts across the country that sent a Republican to Congress in 2016, but voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. A full seven of those districts are in California.”
 
Now, California’s primary election system works differently from most other states. They have what is called the “top-two” system, in which the top two vote-getters in the primaries face off against each other in the general election regardless of political party. While it is strange and quirky, it usually offers solid data on the strength of the parties. Fund explains that “the total primary vote for all Republicans versus the total primary vote for all Democrats has almost always been within a couple points of the November result.”
 
In other words, the results of these elections offer some accurate insight into what the general election results will be. Frankly, they are more accurate polling methods than the polls the fake news media tend to run.
 
And it is for this very reason that the likelihood of a blue wave, at least in California, is not very high.
 
Fund then goes over each of the seven districts in California that Democrats were hoping to take over.
 
“Of their seven targeted GOP seats carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016, the combined total of all Democratic candidates exceeded those of all Republican candidates in only one – the 49th District, vacated by Republican Representative Darryl Issa. And in that district, Democrats currently have only 50.2 percent of the total vote.”
 
So even in the one district where they got the majority vote, it is still a slim margin. Still, I won’t get my hopes up about this. Despite the polls in Alabama, I fully expected Roy Moore to win in 2017, particularly since the polls had Doug Jones winning by a slim margin of victory. Usually, if it’s that close, I tend to assume the Republican is the one in the lead and the fake news media is simply trying to discourage conservatives. Well, they turned out to be right and it was a close race, but the Democrat won, so I expect the Democrat to win in that district as well. We’ll see what happens.
 
Fund then goes over the rest of the districts:
 
“The 10th District, which includes Modesto, backed Hillary Clinton by 49 percent to 46 percent. But Republican incumbent Jeff Denham and another Republican won a combined total of 52 percent of the vote. That’s a good sign Denham can hold his seat.”
 
“Republican David Valadao represents the Hispanic 21st District near Fresno. Hillary Clinton trounced Donald Trump there by 55 percent to 40 percent. But Valadao took a stunning 63 percent of the primary vote, putting him in solid shape to win in November.”
 
“In the 25th District, which includes the Antelope Valley north of Los Angeles, Hillary Clinton won by 50 percent to 43 percent in 2016. But GOP incumbent Steve Knight won 53 percent of the primary vote on Tuesday.”
 
“In the Orange County’s 39th District seat held by the retiring Republican Ed Royce, Hillary Clinton won 51 percent to 43 percent. But the Fullerton area seat is now heavily Asian and former Royce aide Young Kim won an impressive 22 percent to outpoll all other candidates and secure a spot on the November ballot.”
 
“The Orange County-based 45th District, which includes Irvine, was carried by 50 percent to 44 percent by Hillary Clinton in 2016. But this year freshman GOP Rep. Mimi Walters won 53 percent of the primary vote, while all Democrats only carried 44 percent.”
 
“Democrats can be pleased that they avoided being boxed out of the November ballot in the Huntington Beach-based 48th District, which voted 48 percent to 46 percent for Clinton. They had worried that incumbent Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher and his estranged protégé Scott Baugh would secure the top two places on the ballot. But Democratic leaders in Washington spent money to ensure a Democrat would face Rohrabacher in the fall. Their problem is that 2018 primary voters gave a total of 53 percent of their primary ballots to GOP candidates and only 47 percent to Democrats.”
 
“Finally, the suburban San Diego 49th District is the most vulnerable to a Democratic takeover in November, having voted 51 percent to 43 percent for Hillary Clinton just two years ago. But even here Democrats captured just 50.8 percent of the total vote despite having a more energetic primary than Republicans who captured 48 percent of the vote.”
 
“Together, all the Republicans running won 53 percent of the vote, Democrats won 45 percent and other parties won 2 percent.”
 
This means trouble for Democrats in California. And it only gets worse.
 
“Significantly, Republicans won a major victory in this part of Orange County. They easily recalled from office Democratic state Senator Josh Newman, who had provided a crucial vote to raise the state’s gasoline tax last year.”
 
“… Newman’s recall shows the anti-tax fervor that Orange County is famous for is alive and well.”
 
Despite the constant negative press about Trump and Republicans, despite the constant attacks on the GOP tax cuts by Democrats and the media, the Democrats can’t escape the fact that they are nowhere near as popular as they would want to be.
 
While each of these races is relatively close (except for one of them), you really have to remember that this is California that we are talking about. Despite the fact that all of these districts sent Republicans to Congress in 2016, the assumption is always that Democrats will win, close or landslide. And the assumption, if you only watch the MSM, is that Republicans are cowering in their boots and are about to be kicked out of office. That Democrats everywhere will defeat the GOP candidates and will win a supermajority and impeach Trump.
 
But reality always sets in eventually. Here’s the reality: the Trump administration is keeping each of its promises. America is being made great again. It’s being made rich again. It’s being made safe again. The economy is booming, unemployment is tumbling, there are more jobs available than there are workers (according to The Hill), wages are going up even for minimum wage workers, ISIS has largely been obliterated off the face of the Earth, North Korea is willing to negotiate for peace, we are no longer in a stupid deal with Iran to give them nukes (although I fear a lot of damage has already been done by Obama and his administration), and plenty of people can safely say that they are living better off today than at any point during the Obama presidency.
 
The reality is that California is one of the only states that essentially still lives in the Obama years. They have a very socialist governor who has essentially made California a socialist state. This unrestrained socialism is taking its toll on the people of California and many of them have had enough of it. That much is clear if we are even talking about the possibility of Democrats being crushed in November in the worst state to live in.
 
The reality is that socialism has failed everywhere it’s tried and everywhere it will be tried. Point to any socialist nation in the world and I will show you a nation that has deprived its citizens of some of the most basic human rights, let alone Constitutional rights. Point to any country that features a huge government influence and I will show you a government that oppresses its people. You need only look at Venezuela, where their best hope for survival is having enough pets to eat in rations and finding the occasional brand-name bread in desolate markets. Look at North Korea, where you and your family can literally be imprisoned for three generations simply for not cleaning up the dust off of a portrait of Kim Il-Sung.
 
Look at China where the government tells its people how many children they are allowed to have and that they should abort daughters.
 
Look at England where freedom of speech is nonexistent for anyone the government doesn’t like or agree with. Sure, England may not be considered an official socialist country, but it might as well be. That’s certainly the direction it’s going (until it becomes an Islamic country, at least). The same could be said about many countries in Europe.
 
And if California were its own sovereign nation, you could bet any amount of money that they would consider themselves a socialist country. As it stands, it’s a socialist hellhole and many people are tired of it. They’ve seen what socialism brings: equal sharing in misery.
 
Ephesians 6:11
“Put on the whole armor of God, that you may be able to stand against the schemes of the devil.”
 
Author: Freddie Marinelli.