Model Predicts Strong Chances For Trump Re-election If Dow Over 28,053

2020, as I have said in the past, has been a very rough year for everyone. For a time, tens of millions of people lost their jobs or they were furloughed and many small businesses went under, with few being likely to recover, while mega corporations have only grown as a result. However, the economy is making a comeback, and perhaps the biggest indicator of this, at least for the foreseeable future, is the stock market.
 
The markets usually work as a foretelling of the future, based on what people in the markets think will happen soon. It’s not an exact science, of course, but the big dips in the market in the earliest months of the year foretold the economic trouble we would face soon after, but now, the markets are back, with some hitting new record highs and mostly or completely wiping out the losses throughout the pandemic.
 
An economic recovery certainly helps Trump, much to the dismay of the Left who were salivating at the idea of a ruined economy for a chance to get Biden (or Harris) elected and finally bring America down. We are seeing an economic recovery right now, even as things still aren’t quite to how good they were pre-Chinese coronavirus, and this sort of recovery spells good news for a Trump re-election.
 
According to The Socioeconomics Institute, Trump has an 87% chance to win re-election if the market is above 28,052 on Election Day (Nov. 3rd). For the record, before the pandemic hit, the Dow Jones was at 29,500 and bottomed out at 18,591 on March 23rd.
 
Now, while a lot can happen in between now and November 3rd, as I have been saying all along, the current economic future looks bright, provided there are no major surprises that blindside us. Even the momentarily terrifying reality of two hurricanes hitting the states at the Gulf of Mexico has sort of dwindled as the two super storms have weakened over time.
 
But provided that nothing majorly bad occurs, Trump is in good position to win, according to the model. As it stands, the Dow Jones is hovering around 28,600, roughly a thousand points shy of the prior record which is fairly reachable at this point.
 
More specifically, the Institute notes that if the Dow Jones is anywhere over 23,377, Trump has at the very least a mild chance of winning re-election, while if the Dow is between 22,208 and 23,377, Biden has a mild chance of winning. Obviously, anything below 22,208 and Biden as a strong chance of winning.
 
The reasoning behind the Institute’s model is due to them studying all presidential races where an incumbent was running for re-election and in their research, they found that “the strongest correlation with incumbents’ margins of victory or defeat” was the net change in the market for the three years leading up to the election.
 
The last three years have been fairly strange, at least with this year in comparison to the last two. Ever since Trump became President, this country saw nothing but economic success. Following Trump’s election, the Dow Jones went up 2,000 points from election day to inauguration day. The market was excited for a Trump presidency. Time and time again, I noted how the economy was absolutely booming, with the unemployment rate hitting record low after record low, in general and for minorities.
 
We had such a roaring economy that during the Democrat primaries, NO ONE was talking about the economy. Despite it usually being at the top of people’s concerns heading into an election, not one Democrat dared to talk much about the economy because they KNEW they couldn’t fool everyone into believing it wasn’t real. Often times, their only, and flimsy, argument was that it was somehow “Obama’s” economy, even after three years of a Trump presidency.
 
It really speaks to their poor, phony character that the Left would blame Obama’s predecessor for all of his economic failures and steal the credit that rightfully belongs to his successor for a booming economy. The Obama economy was flat and stagnant, which is rather impressive for the fact that he inherited a recession and did NOTHING to make it better. And ever since Trump came along and made things better, they somehow got it into their minds that the credit belongs to the guy who had EIGHT YEARS to make it better and didn’t. That the guy who spent less than a year rebuilding the economy had nothing to do with it, even as it was happening under his watch, even as they had a guy in his same position for eight years who accomplished absolutely nothing.
 
Then, once the pandemic hit and local and state governments decided to completely shut things down, which naturally led to an economic downturn, only THEN did Democrats, specifically Joe Biden, start to talk about the economy and lie about how Obama and Biden rebuilt the economy after their 2008 win and Trump destroyed it.
 
Now that the economy is back strong, the Democrats are once again without a message, other than “Orange Man Bad”.
 
Now, all they have is “Trump is a racist” while citing no evidence and while having the most racist ticket in I don’t know how long. Seriously, for the first time in roughly a century, the Democrats are running a segregationist and a slave owner as their presidential and vice presidential candidates.
 
Now, all they have is “Trump is a sexist” while citing no evidence and while having a guy who is well-documented in sexually harassing women and who picked his VP largely because she is a woman.
 
Now, all they have is “Trump is evil” while citing no evidence and while running the most pro-death ticket in political history. And I’m not just talking about abortion here, though they are extreme proponents of it. I’m also talking about being anti-police (rather ironic, considering Harris’ former professional position) and supporting the violent riots (calling out the violence in general does not tell me Biden is against this. It’d be like watching a terrorist attack and denouncing the violence itself as opposed to those who perpetrated it, though they have done this plenty in the past, so I suppose there is precedence for this disgusting behavior).
 
The economy is making a great comeback following the closures, which is why the Left has turned back to reporting largely about the virus in an effort to scare people into locking things down again. They report “new cases” as though they are equal to “new deaths”, which isn’t at all the case (pun intended).
 
If nothing else, the economy would carry Trump into 2020. A damaged economy means a damaged Trump heading into the election while a strong economy means a strong Trump. We are still not quite where we were pre-pandemic in terms of economic strength, but we are getting there. This is a nightmare for Democrats and it showed throughout the DNC and the RNC.
 
I only pray to God that the economy will continue getting better and exceed where it was pre-pandemic and that Trump utterly trounces Joe Biden and the Democrats, giving them a defeat they haven’t seen since 1984.
 
Romans 8:28
“And we know that for those who love God all things work together for good, for those who are called according to his purpose.”
 
Author: Freddie Marinelli.