Joe Biden might be getting the Hillary Clinton treatment come November 2020, if he is the Democrat Party nominee, as a slew of Bernie Sanders supporters have made the proclamation that they would be voting for President Donald Trump instead of Biden if the former VP ends up with the nomination.
Despite Bernie’s own clear intentions on supporting the Democrat nominee regardless of who it is (signifying just how weak the guy is), according to an ABC News/WaPo poll, 15% of Bernie supporters might vote for Trump come November if Bernie isn’t the nominee.
“If former Vice President Joe Biden secures the Democratic presidential nomination, 15% of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ supporters will vote for President Donald Trump’s reelection, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll,” reported USA Today.
“If accurate, that would represent a slightly larger defection than occurred after the bitter battle between Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, when 12% of Sanders voters broke for Trump in the general election.”
“The good news for Biden is that in spring 2016, an ABC News poll found 20% of Sanders supporters said they would vote for Trump over Clinton, and far fewer ended up doing so. And 80% of Sanders’ supporters said they would back Biden over Trump, according to the poll.”
“The 15% who said they plan to vote for Trump represents just 6% of Democrats and voters who lean Democratic, according to ABC News. Trump won 8% of Democrats in 2016.”
So while more Sanders supporters have said they would vote for Trump over Clinton than Trump over Joe, this is still not fantastic news for Biden.
If Joe and the Democrats hope to beat Trump, they will need far more than this to do so. That 80% seems like a decent number, but if 20% end up either voting for Trump or not voting at all (which is still a possibility that likely isn’t being considered by the MSM, at least regarding this poll), Joe has zero chance at beating Trump, at least depending on where those votes come from.
According to an analysis of the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, “fewer than 80 percent of those who voted for Sanders, an independent, in the Democratic primary did the same for Clinton when she faced off against Trump a few months later. What’s more, 12 percent of those who backed Sanders actually cast a vote for Trump.”
Joe is at roughly the same statistical figure in terms of Bernie supporters backing him over Trump if he is the nominee. He would need the number of Bernie supporters backing him to be closer to 90% if he is to stand any chance at beating Trump. And again, it also matters where the votes are coming from. According to NBC News: “In 2016, about 216,000 Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voters backed the Vermont senator in the spring and Trump in the fall…”. This gave Trump an electoral edge over Hillary, even while losing the popular vote.
But this isn’t the only piece of bad news for Joe. The same ABC News/WaPo poll also looks at the levels of enthusiasm amongst Trump and Biden supporters and let’s just say, people aren’t very excited for the oft-confused septuagenarian.
According to the poll, among Trump supporters, 53% are “Very enthusiastic”, 32% are “somewhat enthusiastic”, and 14% are “not so/not at all” enthusiastic. But among Biden supporters, only 24% are “very enthusiastic”, 49% are “somewhat enthusiastic” and 26% are “not so/not at all” enthusiastic.
That’s 85% of Trump supporters enthusiastic about voting for Trump versus 73% of Biden supporters enthusiastic to vote for Biden, a 12-point difference. However, the biggest and most eye-opening statistic is the figure regarding “very enthusiastic” voters.
Trump supporters are extremely enthused and hyped to vote for Trump come November, while far less than half that amount are equally enthused about voting for Joe. Levels of enthusiasm matter because they might show in terms of turnout come November.
I’ve already written an article talking about how Trump has had massive turnout in Super Tuesday and even in other primaries, despite him being the incumbent and being practically unopposed. Trump is very popular and he can get his supporters to go out to vote for him in droves. Joe can’t do that and it shows in that poll. If those numbers hold steady, Joe won’t have fantastic turnout and definitely won’t beat Trump in the electoral vote.
Joe Biden is essentially the male version of Hillary Clinton, only he isn’t totally annoying to listen to. People aren’t very enthusiastic about voting for him, he has Bernie supporters who are likely to defect and vote for Trump come November (even if less of them are proclaiming so now, Joe doesn’t have as much support from them as he needs) and has a very obvious crooked past. The only thing he has going for him that Hillary didn’t is that he isn’t in the subject of an investigation, even though he should be (remember what Trump’s impeachment was about?).
12% of Bernie voters defected and voted for Trump in 2016 and if anywhere near that amount does the same this time, Joe stands no chance. Keep in mind that Trump was unproven and not particularly well-trusted back in 2016 by plenty of people.
There is a reason the term “NeverTrump” arose. Back then, there was at least SOME excuse for not believing in Trump: he was unproven, at least in terms of politics. But the last three and a half/four years have given him ample opportunity to show that he means what he says and he has done so. The few people who are still NeverTrump can no longer consider themselves conservatives or Republicans. Plenty of people have seen what Trump has done and will likely vote to reelect him.
Remember, conservatives like Ben Shapiro and Dana Loesch were NeverTrump at one time too, and now, plenty of people who opposed or voted against Trump have seen that Trump is not a bad president at all (even if they have some issues with him, particularly in terms of some of his mannerisms) and will vote for him come November. What’s more, there’s an entire movement called the “#WalkAway” movement that is about Democrat voters walking away from the Democrat Party that has abandoned them and their values and will vote for and support Trump.
And I know what some people might try and say. “What about the economy, Trump’s biggest weapon, essentially being crushed because of the virus?” to which I say that I have no doubt in my mind that the economy will be roaring once again by the time of the election. Remember, the reasons for the current economic problems we are seeing are the virus and states’ response to it. Once the virus is no longer a massive threat, states will allow people to go back to work (and even if some Democrat states refuse to budge to try and hurt Trump economically, they would essentially be shooting themselves on the foot and the blame can rightfully be placed on them, not on Trump).
Do I expect the economic numbers to go back to what they were pre-China virus? No, but I do expect them to still be great because the economic policies put in place that allowed for the original economic boom beginning from the Trump administration are still in place. Deregulation and tax cuts have allowed for the economy to thrive and there’s no reason for it to not be doing so once again once this virus is a thing of the past.
So I trust the economy will be roaring once again by the time of the election and Biden will more than likely stand absolutely zero chance at beating Trump (and let me once again take the time to remind people that just because I say and believe this, that doesn’t give people license to not vote for Trump and just assume he will win even without their vote. Complacency on our part is the only thing that can bring Trump down, remember that).
“The Lord will cause your enemies who rise against you to be defeated before you. They shall come out against you one way and flee before you seven ways.”
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