Now, I know we are about two years removed from the 2020 presidential election, but it is always good to see numbers that say something very good about Trump, particularly in his chances to be reelected.
And yes, I know that odds-making sites are not exactly national polls like Rasmussen (who have Trump at 50% approval) and other polls (that also have Trump with good approval ratings), but considering how often fake news interjects into national polls (not necessarily the case every time, but it happens often enough to take notice, particularly during the 2016 election) I would have to say that odds-making sites probably have as much credibility as polls do.
BetOnline, an odds-making site, recently released a list of favorites to win the 2020 presidential election, and currently have Trump at 7-5 odds to win the presidency. That is considerably ahead of the number two options, who are Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Beto O’Rourke, who both are at 10/1 odds to win the presidency.
Now, math is not my strong suit. I honestly had to look at these numbers for a while to understand just why these numbers were great. In my analysis, I noticed that the number for Trump, 7/5, translates to 1.4. And BetOnline had a column that read “American Odds”, which showed Trump was at +140, which makes mathematical sense.
That number is considerably smaller than the +1000 that Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke had, and things began to click a little.
You see, back when Kevin Durant joined the Golden State Warriors (yes, I’m talking about basketball to relate to this article), oddsmakers had the Warriors winning the championship at something like 2/3. I don’t remember the exact number, but the first number was smaller than the second, so I figured that the smaller the ratio is, the better the odds.
As a result, looking at these numbers for the 2020 election, I can see that Trump just SMOKES the competition.
Again, Harris and O’Rourke (who is here for some reason, despite having lost his Senate bid) have 10/1 odds at winning. They are tied for number two.
BetOnline also has Joe Biden at number three (12/1), followed by Bernie Sanders (16/1), Mike Pence (20/1), Cory Booker (25/1), Elizabeth Warren (25/1), Tulsi Gabbard (25/1), Amy Klobuchar (33/1), Kirsten Gillibrand (33/1), Michael Bloomberg (33/1), Ro Khanna (33/1, who is a congressman from California), Tom Steyer (33/1), Ben Shapiro (40/1) and finally, Michael Avenatti (40/1).
For reference, back in August, BetOnline had Trump winning with 3/2 odds, Harris with 10/1 (O’Rourke wasn’t even on the list), Sanders with 14/1, Biden with 16/1, Pence with 16/1 and Warren with 20/1.
So we can see fairly decent improvement for Trump, who already had pretty good odds back during the summer, and we can also see some bad drop-offs for Sanders and Warren. Recently, Sanders has been discovered to have spent $300,000 in a single month on private jet travel, further showing how hypocritical he is. Although, I do not necessarily think that alone would’ve caused this drop-off and this was discovered very recently.
However, Warren’s drop-off could probably be more accurately pointed out. In fact, I literally talked about this late last week, when I talked about a New York Times article basically casting doubt on her presidential chances.
The fact she showed everyone how not Native American she is and still tried to claim the results of the DNA test proved her heritage (and MSM went along with it for all of 5 minutes) is the likeliest cause for such a massive drop-off.
As far as Biden’s jump from 16/1 to 12/1, the Washington Examiner says that this movement comes after he said he was the “most qualified person to be president”. I don’t know if such a blatant (and wrong) statement would actually cause a shift, particularly such a massive one, but I do not really have much better of an explanation apart from the drop-offs for Sanders and Warren simply gave him the opportunity to rise.
But as far as Trump’s chances look, it might come as a surprise to some to see his chances only improving since the last time these odds came out. Matter of fact, he has actually widened his lead from number two. Again, Harris sat at number two back in August with 10/1. Her odds haven’t improved, though they are fairly good by comparison to those behind her. And yet, even despite the “blue wave” back in the midterms, Trump’s chances have only gotten better.
Not to mention that approval ratings have maintained a steady pace, if not growing, and his disapproval ratings fell from 58% back in December of last year to 52%, according to the RealClearPolitics average (which had pretty accurate polls for the midterms).
Now, again, we are two years away from the 2020 elections. An awful lot of things can happen in the span of two years. For example, back in 2014, no one had any sort of clue as to who would be the Republican nominee (people had a fairly good idea of who would be the Democrat one) and who could potentially become the next president.
Trump was nowhere in the picture at this time four years ago. Back then, the only people I could see running were Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, maybe Romney again, Sarah Palin, Rand Paul and maybe a few others. I truly had no idea who would be running and who would be the nominee. And then, Trump comes along and sets politics ablaze, crushing his Republican opponents in the polls and remaining the frontrunner throughout the primaries.
In the span of two years, we went from not knowing who would be running or even who would be the best person to run, to supporting one of the most influential and richest people in America to become President under the banner of “Make America Great Again.”
So we truly have no idea what will happen from this point to November 3rd, 2020. However, it’s pretty clear that the results of the midterm elections, despite Democrats regaining the House, do not show Trump’s favorability waning. His approval rating, as I said, is still holding strong, if not growing. So it makes sense that oddsmakers have Trump getting even better results and having even better odds at winning.
Now, this alone is not the end-all, be-all of the likelihood of Trump’s victory in 2020. Sometimes, you get surprises. For example, returning to a basketball reference to drive my point, the Miami Heat were the favorites to win the 2011 NBA title at -180, with the Dallas Mavericks winning it at +160, according to sbnation.com, a basketball site.
But, as those who follow basketball know, the Mavericks won in 6 games, winning 4-2. So even though the Heat were favorites to win, that did not happen. Of course, politics are different from basketball and I doubt Trump would disappear like LeBron did, but that does indicate we do not truly know what could happen.
Still, as the numbers are today, they suggest that Trump would OBLITERATE any opponent he were to face in the election. And if things continue like this, I see no reason for Trump not to get reelected in 2020.
I know very well I will be voting for him, and hopefully, he will get a little more help from Republicans in Congress that they might retake the House and perhaps even grow in the Senate again.
Here’s hoping that is the case.
“Every good gift and every perfect gift is from above, coming down from the Father of lights with whom there is no variation or shadow due to change.”
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